Saturday morning, September 23, at approximately 1:50 A.M., fall will officially arrive in Deep East Texas. Pumpkin spice and Halloween decorations will no longer be greeted with a raised eyebrow.

The official end of summer will also allow meteorologists to crunch the last of the numbers that will tell us whether or not the summer of 2023 was the hottest ever in East Texas. At the end of August, it was trending in that direction.

Fall is Just Summer 'Light' in East Texas

Anyone who has lived in the Pineywoods for a while knows that the beginning of fall doesn't mean an open door to significantly cooler weather. The average high temperatures for the first two weeks of autumn range between the mid to upper 80s. By mid-October, that average high finally dips below 80.

Where's That Groundhog When You Need Him?

Wouldn't it be nice to flip the script with Punxatawney Phil?

In February as usual, he could forecast six more weeks of winter for the folks up north, but, down south, what about a day for him in September? When he sees his shadow, we get six weeks of early fall temperatures.

Here's the Official Word on Fall-like Temps in East Texas

And that word is...nope.

Two of the most trusted medium-range weather models (GFS and ECMWF) have this to say about our afternoon high temperatures over the next several weeks.

GFS (Global Forecast System)

According to this model, most of Deep East Texas will have temperatures about 5-10 degrees above the norm all the way through the first week of October. That means for about the next three weeks, our daily highs will be between 90-96 degrees.

The good news is that we should experience several periods of rain during that time. But, when the rain is not cooling us down, it will be quite hot.

ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts)

This model is a little more forgiving. We can expect temperatures in the low to mid-90s through this upcoming weekend, but near-normal high temperatures in the mid-80s are forecast for the final week of September.

The good news is that it looks like we are finally done with triple-digit heat until next year. Maybe, just maybe we'll have a significant cold front blow through the area by the time we start seeing these ladies several times a day on TV.

Walt Disney Pictures
Walt Disney Pictures

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