Former FDA Commissioner: Another US COVID Spike Unlikely

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There has been growing concern with some over the European COVID-19 lockdowns that have been reinstated recently. Many in the United States have been pointing at those recent lockdowns as a harbinger of things to come for the US.

But former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb doesn't think that will be the case for the United States. He thinks that the US has surpassed the European region when it comes to vaccine penetration in the population. Gottlieb gave these remarks while talking to CNBC in March. He told CNBC:

“I don’t think the conditions in Europe and the situation in Europe is necessarily predictive anymore of what’s going to happen here because we have much more immunity in our population both from prior infection — which they have as well — but also now from vaccination”

At the time Gottlieb gave the comments, over 27% of adults in the United States had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. That number has since risen since his quotes. Looking at the European region, less than 10% of their adult population had gotten at least one dose of the vaccine. That European number, like the US number, has risen since Gottlieb's comments, but not as much as the US number.

In some of the European countries who are being hard hit by new restrictions have even lower vaccine usage. Only about 7.5% of Italians adults had received a does. About 8.5% of Germans had received a shot. Again, these numbers have risen since Gottlieb's comments, but not at the same rate as the US.

Based on the amount of vaccine in the US, and the amount of the adult population who have naturally occurring antibodies, Gottlieb has previously estimated that more than 50% of the US population has some form of COVID immunity. In addition to that, Gottlieb has pointed at some of the state's with high "variant" numbers, that haven't seen spikes in COVID numbers. This combination of information paints a picture of the US being able to stave off another round of COVID lockdowns.